Fracas AUKUS

"... the challenges facing the AUKUS partners in delivering  'at least eight' nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy
... just how much the undertaking will strain the armed forces
and industrial capacity of all three countries
... will be the anvil on which a key set of relationships, capabilities and effects will be either forged or broken ..."

(Nick Childs, 2023, 'The AUKUS Anvil: Promise and Peril', Survival, 65.5, 7-24) 

AUKUS 15 September 2021 announcement: [US President Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison] 

"If things go according to plan Australia will join an elite fraternity of like-minded nations operating nuclear-powered submarines; the submarine-production capacity of the three partners  will significantly increase; and, by the middle of the century, about a dozen extra such submarines could be added to the combined inventories of the AUKUS navies ...
From the outset, AUKUS also contemplated cooperation on other key defence capabilities, initially identified as cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and undersea-warfare technologies. To this second pillar hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities, electronic warfare, innovation and information-sharing have been added ...
Submarines [pillar one] are the main focus here."

AUKUS 13 March 2023 announcement: [US President Biden, UK Prime Minister Sunak, Australian Prime Minister Albanese]

"... at the US naval base at San Diego, California, with a US Navy nuclear-powered submarine as a backdrop ...[the three leaders]... set out their 'phased approach' ['optimal pathway']. It includes embedding Australian military and civilian personnel with the US Navy, Royal Navy and the American and British submarine-industrial bases from 2023, as well as increasing port visits by US Navy submarines and starting similar UK visits in 2026; forward rotations of US and UK submarines to Australia from as early as 2027; the sale of three of the US current-generation Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the early 2030s to create a 'sovereign capability' for Australia in the operation of such vessels, plus an option for up to two more if needed; and the joint development of a new submarine, SSN AUKUS, based on the UK's next-generation, nuclear-powered-submarine design but also incorporating Australian and cutting-edge US technology. SSN AUKUS is slated to serve both the Royal Navy and Royal Australian Navy as an enduring future capability, with the first SSN AUKUS to be delivered  to the Royal Navy in the late 2030s and to the Royal Australian Navy in the early 2040s.
... ['A key objective is for Australia to be 'sovereign ready' to operate and support its own Virginia-class submarines from about 2033'] ... 
The uptick in visits of US submarines to the Western Australian submarine base, HMAS Stirling ... to expand the Royal Australian Navy's knowledge of SSNs. One of the most significant early steps on the AUKUS ladder, from 2027, will be the establishment at HMAS Stirling of a forward rotational presence of up to four US Navy Virginia-class submarines and one Royal Navy Astute-class SSN, the formation to be known as 'Submarine Rotational Force-West' ..."



AUKUS REALITY CHECK ― Current Inventory and Industrial Capacity

(i) United States:
"...the first procurement step calls for the proposed sale of three and possibly up to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia, starting in the 2030s ... [But] as it is the US industrial base is struggling to fulfil the pre-existing arrangement of delivering the new Columbia-class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) ... as well as new Virginia-class boats on time and in the numbers contracted for. The navy's inventory of non-SSBN submarines hovers around the 50 mark, a long way short of the long-term goal of between 66 and 72 boats ... [There is also] an anticipated near-term dip in numbers ...as remaining Los Angeles-class boats, the Virginia's forerunners delivered late in the Cold War, are decommissioned ... to offset the impact on US Navy force levels ... would need the two US submarine yards ... to deliver new boats at the rate of one Columbia and two Virginias a year for the rest of the decade and into the 2030s. Adding the Australian requirement is estimated to raise the Virginia production quota to at least 2.3 per year ... However ... the delivery rate on Virginia-class boats is currently 4unning at about 1.4 per year, and it will still be five years before it reaches two."

(ii) United Kingdom:
"Britain's industrial base is significantly smaller than America's and ... has its work cut out to deliver a new-generation SSBN (the Dreadnought class), complete the Astute SSNs, and gear up for the Astute's successor ... The country's current low force level (four SSBNs and seven Astute-class SSNs planned) leaves it at the ragged edge of viability as a nuclear-powered-submarine constructor. The Royal Navy's ambition is to regrow the force to perhaps a dozen new attack boats in addition to the SSBNs ... To meet the planned delivery dates of a first Royal Navy SSN AUKUS submarine by the late 2030s and a first Royal Australian Navy vessel by the early 2040s, work would have to start on the new vessels before the end of this decade ... Meanwhile, the UK may be pressed to deliver on ... the forward deployment of an Astute to the Pacific for extended periods starting in 2027. A maximum of seven SSNs will be available over the next decade and a half at least, and a report was recently published highlighting a period when none of the current submarines were at sea. Given ... demands to support national and NATO requirements closer to home, it remains unclear whether it will be sensible or plausible to dispatch an Astute to the Pacific."

Editorial comment  
By any reasonable reading of the situation, the promises made by America and Britain are manifestly unachievable. Unfortunately, by entering into the AUKUS agreement, Australia has already publicly declared her opposition to China's hegemony. We have aroused the dragon. Somehow then, and soon, a 'doable' defence policy needs to be salvaged from this mess. 
A sensible pathway is unlikely to be sought however. Politics in Australia is increasingly swept up in the doctrine of the new age of Trump: The international arms race that is developing requires increasing fractions of national economic output devoted to 'Defence'. This in turn means blindly trusting the recommendations of armed forces chiefs to build ever more  obsolete behemoths with which we can then refight the last war.








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