The Thucydides Trap


1st Lt A.Y. Soderstrom USAF, 2021, 'Direct Military Conflict with China May Not Happen―and Why There Are Worse Outcomes', Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, 152-156


 
ARGUMENT

"Thucydides originally wrote about the Peloponnesian War between Athens, the rising power, and Sparta, the hegemonic power. As Athens continued expanding its empire, Sparta became afraid for its independence and position. The war became inevitable once fear was so deeply instilled in Sparta.

With China being a rising power and the United States being a current hegemonic power, it seems that war could be a high possibility. If media outlets keep spreading misinformation or twisting facts, a fear may be deeply instilled in either country, leading to war involving direct military conflict.

However, in Ancient Greece, warfare was done [ONLY] by direct military conflict. They did not conduct cyberattacks, have nuclear weapons, or other means short of war that may not be as personal as bombs leveling buildings or killing individuals but could potentially hurt a nation even more.

These [alternative] types of attacks―not involving direct military conflict―are what China is better suited to conduct war over."

EVIDENCE

"In 2012, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) acquired its first aircraft carrier. China now [2021] has two aircraft carriers with a third nearing completion. However, a few aircraft carriers are not enough to command complete power.

In 2013, China began construction of an artificial island in the South China Sea, nicknamed 'The Great Wall of Sand' by former United States Pacific Commander ADM Harry Harris. Beijing's intention was to create a military base with airfields, and in that it was successful ...

In 2018, Beijing unveiled the Chinese-made DF-26, an intermediate-range ballistic missile that has a 1,553-mile range―capable of striking Guam. The press has nicknamed this missile 'The Carrier Killer'. The DF-26 also comes down vertically, making it difficult to counter the attack. 

China's advanced missile technology is not meant to take down a Raptor or a Viper in air-to-air combat. Instead, these weapons would be used to target US and allied bases where aircraft and naval assets reside. 

Despite the significant developments to its weapons systems and the rapid growth of its national defense industry, China is unlikely to use these weapons against the West. China's motivation for these weapons systems is anti access and area denial (A2AD), making it extremely difficult for Western powers to get anywhere close to China."
 



CONCLUSION

"... China's motivation for these weapons systems is not to wage a war against Western powers but to deter such powers from interfering with China's master plan to 'reunite' China   
 
 ... Between having too many enemies to fight and developing its military technology toward deterring enemies instead of engaging and destroying them, China is unlikely to engage in direct military action with the West."


QUESTION ?

If the suggestion of this article is correct, then how likely is the current Australian spending spree on big-ticket military items going to be anything other than a massive misallocation of government funds ?

There is a contradiction between wanting to contain/confront an aggressive China and fulfilling the legitimate aim of defending Australia. Different tools are needed to perform each job and it is therefore very expensive (and probably ineffective) for a "middle order" country to try to do both. 

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